Posed a question to Grok about the Q-day timeline – and it came back with this:
The question is designed for small business and using the DEFCON presentation mentioned below.
Possible Quantum Day (Q-Day) Timelines
“Quantum Day” or Q-Day refers to the point when quantum computers become capable of breaking widely used classical encryption algorithms like RSA and ECC (via Shor’s algorithm) or weakening symmetric ciphers like AES (via Grover’s algorithm), rendering much of today’s cybersecurity infrastructure obsolete. This is often called the “quantum apocalypse” for cryptography.
Based on Konstantin Karagiannis’s DEF CON 33 presentation (“Post Quantum Panic: When Will the Cracking Begin, & Can We Detect It?”), delivered in August 2025 and released online in October 2025, the timelines are more aggressive than official estimates:
– **NIST’s Official Estimate**: Q-Day is not expected before **2035**, giving organizations until then to migrate to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). This assumes gradual progress in quantum hardware and focuses on a conservative risk assessment.
– **Karagiannis’s Analysis**: He argues for earlier risks, highlighting **2025** as a potential year when quantum breakthroughs could enable cracking, based on optimistic qubit scaling and algorithm optimizations. More broadly, he predicts a “high possibility” of breaking RSA and ECC **around 2030** (or before), driven by recent research reducing the qubit requirements:
– For RSA-2048 (Shor’s algorithm): As few as **1,400–6,000 logical qubits** (down from earlier estimates of 20 million physical qubits), achievable in under a week of runtime.
– For AES-128 (Grover’s algorithm): **1,000–3,000 logical qubits**.
– General milestones: 1,000+ qubits by **2026**, fault-tolerant systems by **2030**.
This ties directly to IonQ’s roadmap, which Karagiannis references in the context of accelerating hardware access (e.g., via cloud platforms like AWS Braket). IonQ plans to reach **20,000 physical qubits** by **2028** through interconnected chips, positioning them as a leader in scaling toward cryptographically relevant quantum computing (CRQC). While not sufficient alone for full Q-Day (logical qubits are key, requiring error correction), this could enable hybrid or partial attacks sooner, especially if combined with advances from Google, IBM, or nation-state programs.
In short: Prepare for **2025–2030** as the high-risk window, not 2035. Karagiannis emphasizes that even months of advance warning might be too late if adversaries “harvest now, decrypt later.”
### What Should a Small Business Prepare?
Small businesses, often resource-constrained, face amplified risks from Q-Day—think stolen customer data, disrupted supply chains, or regulatory fines under frameworks like GDPR or NIST guidelines. The good news: Preparation is feasible with a phased, low-cost approach focused on “crypto-agility” (the ability to swap algorithms quickly). Here’s a tailored roadmap based on Karagiannis’s advice and NIST standards:
1. **Inventory Your Crypto Usage (Now – 3 Months)**:
– Audit all systems: Identify where you use vulnerable algorithms (e.g., RSA for TLS certificates, ECC for signatures, AES for data at rest).
– Tools: Free/open-source like OpenSSL’s `ciphers` command or Cryptosense Analyzer (trial version). For cloud services (AWS, Azure), use built-in scanners.
– Cost: Minimal (internal IT time). Why? 70% of breaches involve unpatched crypto, per Forescout reports.
2. **Build Crypto Agility (3–12 Months)**:
– Abstract crypto out of code: Use libraries like Bouncy Castle (Java) or libsodium that support swappable algorithms.
– Hybridize: Start with “crypto-agile” setups combining classical + PQC (e.g., TLS 1.3 with Kyber for key exchange).
– Test: Run penetration tests on staging environments to simulate quantum attacks.
3. **Migrate to NIST PQC Standards (12–24 Months)**:
– Prioritize high-impact areas: Web traffic (TLS), email signing, VPNs, and data storage.
– Adopt these FIPS-approved algorithms:
– **Key Encapsulation**: ML-KEM (Kyber) for secure key exchange.
– **Digital Signatures**: ML-DSA (Dilithium) or SLH-DSA (SPHINCS+) for authentication.
– Resources: NIST’s free migration guides; hybrid implementations in OpenSSL 3.0+ or wolfSSL.
– For small biz: Use managed services like Cloudflare’s Post-Quantum TLS (free tier available) or Let’s Encrypt for PQC certs.
4. **Data Management & Monitoring (Ongoing)**:
– Classify and encrypt sensitive data now with PQC-safe methods—assume all encrypted data harvested today could be decrypted post-Q-Day.
– Detect anomalies: Monitor for quantum-like patterns (e.g., unusual compute spikes on cloud quantum services) using tools like AWS GuardDuty.
– Deprecate weak algos: Follow NIST IR 8547’s timeline (e.g., phase out RSA-2048 by 2030).
**Budget Tips for Small Businesses**:
– Start free: Leverage open-source (e.g., Qiskit for quantum sims) and NIST resources.
– Total cost: $5K–20K/year for tools/consulting, vs. millions in breach recovery.
– Timeline Urgency: Aim for 80% migration by **2028** to align with IonQ’s scaling.
If unaddressed, Q-Day could expose trade secrets or customer PII. Karagiannis’s call: “Don’t panic, but act.” For deeper dives, watch the full talk or check Protiviti’s Post-Quantum World podcast.
so what to do?
How about creating a checklist within a requirement of “reasonable” actions for SMB. (using you.com) — Especially if the Q-day will be coming in at 2030 or earlier (it may be earlier as AI will accelerate things)
Here is a list of items to do from another AI – you.com, just to make sure we grab info from all over
### **Quantum Readiness Checklist for Small Businesses**
#### 1. **Inventory and Assessment**
– Identify all systems and data protected by current cryptographic methods (e.g., SSL/TLS certificates, VPNs, encrypted databases).
– List all software, hardware, and cloud services that rely on public-key cryptography.
– Determine which data is sensitive and needs long-term protection (customer info, financial records, intellectual property).
#### 2. **Vendor and Service Provider Engagement**
– Ask your IT vendors and cloud providers:
– Do you have a plan for transitioning to post-quantum cryptography?
– When do you expect to support quantum-resistant algorithms?
– Are your current security protocols quantum-safe or upgradeable?
– Request timelines and roadmaps for quantum-safe upgrades.
#### 3. **Security Policy Updates**
– Include quantum risk awareness in your cybersecurity policies.
– Plan for regular reviews of cryptographic standards as quantum-safe algorithms become standardized.
– Ensure your incident response plan considers potential future cryptographic vulnerabilities.
#### 4. **Staff Training and Awareness**
– Educate your IT and security teams about quantum computing basics and its impact on cryptography.
– Train employees on maintaining strong cybersecurity hygiene (passwords, phishing awareness, multi-factor authentication).
#### 5. **Technology and Infrastructure Planning**
– When purchasing new hardware or software, prioritize solutions that support or plan to support post-quantum cryptography.
– Budget for future upgrades to cryptographic libraries and security infrastructure.
– Monitor developments in post-quantum cryptographic standards (e.g., NIST’s PQC standardization process).
#### 6. **Data Protection and Backup**
– Ensure backups are encrypted and stored securely, considering that encrypted data today might be decrypted in the future by quantum attacks.
– Consider data lifecycle policies: how long sensitive data must be protected and when to retire or re-encrypt it.
#### 7. **Stay Informed**
– Subscribe to cybersecurity and quantum computing newsletters or alerts.
– Follow government and industry guidance on quantum-safe cryptography.
I try to do these things in 3s so here is another AI answer to what a SMB should do (within reason) for Q-day.
Perplexity answer:
Small businesses preparing for Q-Day—the projected moment when quantum computers can break widely used digital encryption—should take early, rational steps to ensure business continuity and protect confidential data. Current industry thinking, influenced by IonQ’s aggressive roadmap and recent DEFCON discussions, anticipates that quantum threats to encryption like RSA and ECC may arrive around 2030, possibly earlier, as quantum hardware could see significant breakthroughs in this timeframe[1][2][3].
### Immediate Actions for Small Businesses
– Start inventorying all your digital assets, communication channels, and critical data that rely on public-key cryptography (especially RSA, ECC, and other algorithms considered vulnerable to quantum attacks)[4].
– Monitor the NIST post-quantum cryptography standardization process, as new “quantum-safe” algorithms should be adopted for data and systems that need long-term confidentiality[1][5].
– If handling sensitive or regulated information, assess how long your data needs to be secure (“data shelf life”), and escalate migration to quantum-resistant algorithms for data with >5 years of confidentiality requirements[5][6].
– Begin discussions with your software and IT vendors about their timelines for offering quantum-resilient upgrades.
### Medium-Term Steps
– Prioritize a shift towards end-to-end encrypted services and platforms that commit to adopting post-quantum cryptography as standards evolve[6][5].
– Train staff—especially those in IT or handling client data—on the upcoming quantum transition and emerging security best practices.
– Maintain strong cyber hygiene: always patch systems, minimize exposed services, and segment networks to reduce the blast radius if encryption is ever compromised[7][6].
### What Not to Do
– Avoid panic: mass cryptographic collapse is still several years off, and mainstream tools are in rapid development.
– Don’t delay migration planning, but also don’t waste money on unproven “quantum secure” products until standards settle.
### Timeline and Future Outlook
IonQ’s and IBM’s quantum computing roadmaps aim for quantum machines with 10,000–2,000,000 physical qubits by 2030, potentially enough for real cryptographic attacks[2][3][1]. Government agencies such as NIST suggest a deprecation window of 2030–2035 for insecure algorithms, so migration before the decade’s end is prudent for critical secrets[1][5].
Preparing now—by mapping out dependencies, following trusted standards, and coordinating with vendors—will help avoid costly and rushed last-minute overhauls as Q-Day approaches[1][4][6].
Citations:
[1] Post Quantum Panic: When Will the Cracking Begin, & Can We … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkVYJx1iLNs
[2] IonQ’s Accelerated Roadmap: Turning Quantum Ambition into Reality https://ionq.com/blog/ionqs-accelerated-roadmap-turning-quantum-ambition-into-reality
[3] The timelines: when can we expect useful quantum computers? https://introtoquantum.org/essentials/timelines/
[4] Q-Day and the Impact of Breaking RSA2048 – IonQ https://ionq.com/blog/q-day-and-the-impact-of-breaking-rsa2048
[5] “Q Day” Is Coming: Is the World Prepared? https://www.cigionline.org/articles/q-day-is-coming-is-the-world-prepared/
[6] Are you prepared for Q-day? | Tom’s Guide https://www.tomsguide.com/computing/vpns/are-you-prepared-for-q-day
[7] Inside The Coming Quantum Crisis: Why CEOs Must Prepare For Q … https://www.forbes.com/sites/sap/2025/05/28/inside-the-coming-quantum-crisis-why-ceos-must-prepare-for-q-day-now/
[8] Prep Your Small Business For Tax Day With These 14 Smart Steps https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/02/15/prep-your-small-business-for-tax-day-with-these-14-smart-steps/
[9] Surviving DEFCON: the reality of quantum and cyber security https://oqc.tech/resources/beyond-the-bit/surviving-defcon/
[10] DEF CON 33 – Critically Neglected: Cybersecurity for buildings https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ElW725i8z4
So to recap – we should not PANIC and PLAN!!! My distillation of the above info out of 3 different AI engine answers.
1. inventory (seems basic – should be done anyway) so this inventory means understand the encryption used within your environment.
2. Communicate to important vendors that this is on your radar and would like a plan from them. Also to employees.
3. Keep an eye out for news and NIST recommendations as they come out.
4. Set up initial plans for critical encrypted data.
5. Get ready for actual Q-day.
This can be a long term plan (1-3 years). Personally I think the Q-day will likely happen quicker as AI buildout increases computing power.